Boylesports have also gone to town with their in-play golf offering lately, with a plethora of markets available including:
- In-Play 2/3 Ball Winner
- Next Hole Winner
- Player Score Per Hole
- Number Of Putts Per Hole
- To Hit The Green In Regulation
- Proximity To Hole
Course Overview. A slightly lengthened track at 7,284 yards for its par of 72 is still no problem for the modern professional, with 4 mid-range par-5s and couple of potentially driveable par-4s offering scoring opportunities. With generous fairways, the course is set up for attacking golf.
Historically the greens here had been tired, slow Bentgrass mixed with Poa Annua, however the putting surfaces were overhauled before the 2019 renewal and re-laid with Creeping Bentgrass; they’ve bedded in nicely now and offer excellent chances to those who can dial in their irons.
History has proven that many types of players with different styles have succeeded here – it could be either a high GIR player who putts well, or someone in good putting form who finds more greens than normal who prevails. Either way, birdies and low scoring are the order of the day, particularly if rain does soften up the putting surfaces before or during the event.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s BMW International Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event. As per the notes above, this week’s venue played host to the event from 2002-11 in this week’s data, plus 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2021:
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2021: Hovland, 13/2; 2019: Pavan, 100/1; 2018: Wallace, 40/1; 2017: Romero, 300/1; 2016: Stenson, 10/1; 2015: Pablo Larrazabal, 60/1; 2014: Fabrizio Zanotti, 80/1; 2013: Ernie Els, 22/1; 2012: Danny Willett, 90/1; 2011: Pablo Larrazabal, 45/1; 2010: David Horsey, 150/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
Hot weather in Germany is forecast to break down at the start of the tournament, with sunshine and showers likely throughout the event. Winds will be generally light and temperatures will recover to the mid-70s Fahrenheit as the week progresses.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.
Analysing the final stats of the last 8 winners here on this track gives us a little more insight into the task at hand:
- 2021, Viktor Hovland (-19). 309.9 yards, 60.7% fairways (19th), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 73.7% scrambling (7th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).
- 2019, Andrea Pavan (-15). 300.1 yards, 51.8% fairways (44th), 79.2% greens in regulation (2nd), 80.0% scrambling (3rd), 1.75 putts per GIR (38th).
- 2015, Pablo Larrazabal (-17). 281.8 yards, 66.1% fairways (22nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (33rd), 78.3% scrambling (5th), 1.73 putts per GIR (27th).
- 2013, Ernie Els (-18). 295.9 yards, 55.4% fairways (50th), 88.9% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5% scrambling (18th), 1.78 putts per GIR (51st).
- 2011, Pablo Larrazabal (-16). 280.3 yards, 76.8% fairways (2nd), 84.7% greens in regulation (2nd), 63.6% scrambling (25th), 1.75 putts per GIR (36th).
- 2010, David Horsey (-18). 268.8 yards, 76.8% fairways (7th), 72.2% greens in regulation (34th), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.67 putts per GIR (13th).
- 2009, Nick Dougherty (-22). 283.3 yards, 66.1% fairways (53rd), 76.4% greens in regulation (32nd), 64.7% scrambling (27th), 1.58 putts per GIR (3rd).
- 2008, Martin Kaymer (-15). 293.1 yards, 60.7% fairways (45th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 80% scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (56th).
No stats were captured by the European Tour for 2017 winner Andres Romero.
Despite the course seemingly setting up nicely for the longer hitters with 4 gettable par-5s and a couple of very short par-4s, length off the tee hasn’t been the overriding factor in the winners listed here.
Minimising bogeys on a low-scoring track is just as important as making the requisite red numbers – momentum-stoppers simply don’t lend themselves to success around here. Viktor Hovland was a case in point last year, making just 7 bogeys balanced by an eagle and 24 birdies on his way to victory.
Andrea Pavan made just 4 bogeys in 2019, Romero and Larrazabal made 7 bogeys apiece over 72 holes in their wins here in 2017 and 2015 respectively, Ernie Els made just 4 bogeys and a double over the 4 days back in 2013, Pablo Larrazabal made 6 bogeys, Horsey 5, Dougherty 7 and Kaymer 3 bogeys and a double on their respective paths to victory.
The theme continues as you look further back in time also and keeping mistakes to a minimum will be critical in compiling a competitive score this week.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the past 2 winners here have both performed well from tee-to-green and an approach, however their SG Putting performance was their standout statistic for the week:
- 2021, Viktor Hovland: T: 12th; A: 23rd; T2G: 15th; ATG: 54th; P: 1st
- 2019, Andrea Pavan: T: 40th; A: 11th, T2G: 12th, ATG: 10th; P: 7th
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: Taking results at this venue in isolation, current form tends to be more of a factor here than some weeks which makes a level of sense given that there’s no room for seriously errant irons or a stone cold putter if you’re going to contend.
The exception to this rule is undoubtedly Andres Romero who hadn’t made a cut all year until the point that he won here in 2017, and at 300/1 it would have been an inspired choice to have plucked him out of the field as the eventual winner pre-event.
Prior to Romero’s success, Larrazabal in 2015 had gone off the boil a little although he’d finished 3rd in Morocco earlier in the year. Els came straight here from Merion where he’d finished 4th the week before, plus he’d finished 6th at Wentworth and 2nd in Indonesia in recent times so was in decent nick.
Larrazabal (2011) had finished 11th at the Italian Open a fortnight before, plus had recent contending performances including 4th in Wales and 3rd in Spain. Horsey had finished 2nd in the Italian Open a month before, Dougherty was 4th in the Irish Open the previous month and Kaymer had produced a couple of top 10s in his previous 5 events, plus had won earlier in the season in the Middle East.
In 2019, eventual winner Andrea Pavan arrived after 3 weeks off having missed his last cut at the Belgian Knockout. Prior to that his form had been solid if unspectacular with 4 finishes inside the top-27 on his previous 5 starts.
Last year’s favourite Viktor Hovland had withdrawn from the US Open after getting sand in his eye in an opening round of 74; prior to that, a pair of 3rd place finishes at the PGA Tour’s Valspar Championship and Wells Fargo Championship suggested he was in decent form overall:
- 2021, Viktor Hovland: 6/5/2/49/MC/42/21/3/3/30/47/WD
- 2019, Andrea Pavan: MC/MC/34/31/MC/60/27/21/MC/15/25/MC
- 2017, Andres Romero: 67/MC/MC/MC/58/18/24/27/MC/MC/MC/MC
- 2015, Pablo Larrazabal: 33/20/20/3/22/MC/49/MC/MC/43
- 2013, Ernie Els: MC/14/13/MC/15/2/MC/6/37/4
- 2011, Pablo Larrazabal: MC/18/44/30/10/3/49/MC/4/11
- 2010, David Horsey: 11/60/29/MC/42/46/2/MC/MC/MC
- 2009: Nick Dougherty: 14/MC/47/MC/48/31/4/13/MC/37
- 2008: Martin Kaymer: 33/MC/57/39/MC/7/10/16/21/53
Course Form (back to 2008): With the exception of David Horsey in 2010 and Viktor Hovland last year, all other winners here over the same period of time had some practical experience of the course here in Munich. In addition, prior to Romero’s win in 2017, the previous 3 victors had each finished in the top 5 here before winning:
- 2021, Viktor Hovland: Debut
- 2019, Andrea Pavan: MC
- 2017, Andres Romero: 28/22
- 2015, Pablo Larrazabal: 61/MC/3/1/MC
- 2013, Ernie Els: 26/5/17/7/MC
- 2011, Pablo Larrazabal: 61/MC/3
- 2010, David Horsey: Debut
- 2009: Nick Dougherty: 46/24/MC/50/30/MC/26
- 2008: Martin Kaymer: 58/MC/MC
My team for the week is as follows: